How to Predict Your Marathon Time Using Your GPS Data
Dr Will O'Connor Dr Will O'Connor
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 Published On Oct 11, 2023

I'm sharing my four-step, data-driven system that I've personally used to run 2:39, 2:38, and 2:37 in my last three marathons. 🏃‍♂️💨

🔬 *Why This Matters*
A successful marathon isn't just about running; it's a science. We're focusing on pacing today because, let's be real, you can't hit your goal time if you're exceeding your physiological capacity.

📊 Outline
1️⃣ **What**: The specific runs you need to analyze in your training.
2️⃣ **Where**: Where to look in your data for crucial insights.
3️⃣ **How**: How to set "speed limits" based on real data to optimize your race performance.

📈 *The Four-Step System*
- **Step One**: Find a recent run where you've hit at least 30 minutes at marathon effort.
- **Step Two**: Highlight that marathon effort section in your data.
- **Step Three**: Note down the average Pace, Power, Heart Rate, and peak HR.
- **Step Four**: Check your average heart rate for your 30min section is within Zone 3 (88-95% LTHR)

🛠 *Tools I Use*
I personally use TrainingPeaks for data analysis, which is why I include a premium subscription in my Training Unlimited membership. www.drwilloconnor.com/training-unlimited

📚 *Additional Resources*
- Grab my training zones how-to guide to calculate your zones and thresholds.
- Watch my HR, Pace, Power video for how to use each metric in different scenarios.

🤔 *Reality Check*
If the numbers you get are slower than you expect, don't sweat it. A successful marathon is about maximizing your performance on the day, not getting hung up on arbitrary numbers.

👇 *Join the Conversation*
Hit me up in the comments with your marathon stories, good or bad. I want to hear them all.

👍 If you found this video helpful, give it a thumbs up and subscribe for more data-driven running insights. See you on the next one! #FasterWithData

00:00 Intro
01:58 Step One - What
02:30 Step Two - Where
03:15 Step Three - Key Info
03:55 Step Four - Threshold Check
05:09 If Your HR is too high
05:37 Filtering your data
06:30 Unrealistic expectations
07:20 Recap key points
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🔗 *Links*
- Training Zones How-To Guide: https://link.drwillo.com/howtotrainin...
- HR, Pace, Power Video:    • Using Science & Data to Run a Maratho...  
- Training Unlimited Membership: www.drwilloconnor.com/training-unlimited
- Weekly Training Blog: https://link.drwillo.com/trainingblog


LINKS
• Podcast: https://link.drwillo.com/poddy
• Strava: https://link.drwillo.com/Strava
• YouTube: https://link.drwillo.com/youtube
• Instagram: https://link.drwillo.com/instagram
• Facebook: https://link.drwillo.com/facebook

• Performance Advantage podcast with me & Dr Matt Miller: https://www.performanceadvantagepodca...

• Getting coaching with Dr Will: https://www.drwilloconnor.com

#sportscience #running #ultramarathons

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