Can the GNU hold and send markets higher over the next five years?
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 Published On Jun 19, 2024

Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE:
Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP.
Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018.
The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility.
RAND and Resource Stocks:
RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively.
Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17.
Coalition Government and Market Impacts:
The coalition’s stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence.
JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signalling positive outlooks.
SA Inc Stocks and ETFs:
Retailers like Shoprite*, Mr. Price*, Foschini Group*, and Truworths hitting 52-week highs.
ETFs for local investors, focusing on SA Inc..
Recommendations include avoiding heavy Rand Hedge dual-listed miners in a strong RAND environment.
RSA Retail Savings Bonds:
Interest rates for RSA Retail Savings Bonds to drop in July.
Current rates: 11.5% for a 5-year bond, expected to decrease to 10.75%.
Opportunity to reset bonds before the rate change on the 20th of the month.
Inflation and Interest Rates:
Local CPI stable at 5.2%, within the target band but aiming for 4.5%.
US FOMC holds rates steady, hinting at a possible future rate cut.
Prospects for lower local interest rates and their impact on retail stocks and disposable income.
Market Opportunities:
Interest in retailers and brokers like Purple Group* and PSG Konsult, considering the potential increase in disposable income and trading volumes.
Positive long-term outlook, but caution against immediate full investment.

* I hold ungeared positions.

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