This talk begins with an overview of the properties of hydrological and water resource models then charts the history of their use inclimate risk assessment at the catchment-scale. Concepts such as equifinality in (hydrological) modelling and associated implications for climate impact assessment will then be explored. Uncertainties linked to hydrological model structures and parameters are placed in the wider context of other major uncertainties arising from non - climatic pressures, climate model and downscaling biases. Explanations for apparent mismatches between observed and expected hydrological change at regional scales will be offered. Two case studies will then demonstrate how models can be used as ‘virtual laboratories’ for exploring multiple working hypotheses about hydrological change (in the Boyne, Republic of Ireland), and for assessing outcomes of adaptation options (in the Upper Colorado, USA). The talk will conclude with a summary of outstanding research challenges and explain how these relate to the information needs of water planners.

RECOMMENDED READING
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses. (https://wiki.ucar.edu/download/attach...
n=1&modificationDate=1405000750000&api=v2)