In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities.

0:00 Introduction
1:30 The future of the 60/40 portfolio
6:12 Inflation trends and fiscal policy impact
10:09 Labor market and construction sector indicators
15:20 Earnings expectations and potential growth
21:56 AI's impact on productivity
26:28 Market breadth and equal-weighted index performance
31:04 Warren's outlook for second half of 2024
37:11 Newly launched ETF and quality-driven strategy
45:20 Strategic asset allocation recommendations
50:46 Yield levels and stock market performance
55:36 Closing thoughts and wrap-up

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