The UK public finances have been buffeted by a rapid succession of nasty shocks. As the Office for Budget Responsibility noted in July 2022, in the aftermath of the pandemic and in the midst of the energy crisis, ‘it is hard to escape the conclusion that the world is becoming a riskier place’. Since then, global interest rates have soared, pushing the UK government’s debt interest bill to its highest level since the 1980s. On top of that, challenges which were once thought of as ‘long-term’ are increasingly posing fiscal risks in the here and now.

This online event, jointly organised by the Office for Budget Responsibility and Institute for Fiscal Studies, will focus on two particular fiscal risks facing the UK:

Following the publication of the latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report in July, Richard Hughes of the OBR will discuss the vulnerability of the UK government’s debt position and the impact of recent interest rate rises.
IFS researchers will present new analysis of how Chancellors respond asymmetrically to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ economic news, and what this means for the public finances and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts.

00:00 - Introduction by Paul Johnson
02:13 - Fiscal risks and sustainability, Richard Hughes
16:13 - How central are official borrowing forecasts, Carl Emmerson
27:10 - Fiscal risks and the city, Bruna Skarica
37:18 - Q&A