ESRI says housing targets need to be constantly revised as migration numbers make population growth harder to predict.

Housing demand may be significantly below the 50,000 homes a year Taoiseach Simon Harris promised to deliver when he was elected as Fine Gael leader earlier this year – potentially setting the country on course for an over-supply problem with echoes of the Celtic Tiger crash.

A new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), released today, says demand for new homes between 2025 and 2030 could be as low as 35,000 a year, if the recent surge in immigration abates.

However, if the economy continues to outperform other EU peers and immigration picks up, demand could be as high as 53,000 units a year, at the highest end of estimates, the report said.

Immigration is the main variable in the estimates because it is the key driver of population increase, according to Dr Adele Bergin, associate research professor at the ESRI.

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