Just use a binomial distribution instead. So much easier to talk about.

Average Stats are used in Fire Emblem discussion because they represent the supposed "most likely" outcome for a unit, mathematically calculated via adding their growth rates in a linear fashion. While this is useful in a vacuum, the real performance of a unit in a game with randomized growths like most FEs is more akin to a roulette wheel, where you could go hot and hit even a rare number every time, or go cold and never hit even a super high rate, but you will never get partial credit and nothing is guaranteed.

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