Overwatch 1 Loot Box Probabilities
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 Published On Sep 18, 2022

SPREADSHEET: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...

What items would you expect to receive after opening 256 loot boxes? I recorded and logged every drop to find out.

• Each loot box was earned (not purchased) between February 2020 and 2022, which explains Echo's slightly lower distribution of items as she was released in April 2020.
• All loot boxes opened are of the regular variant (no event loot boxes).
• Each loot box was opened on September 8, 2022 - though this should be irrelevant since items within a box are determined when they are earned, not when they are opened.
• No loot boxes had been opened prior to this, so all 1,024 items received were new (not duplicates).
• My epic and legendary rates at 0:32 do not match Blizzard's official data at https://us.battle.net/support/article... - it could be that new accounts are given epic and legendary items more frequently due to the lack of duplicates, or it's a result of my small sample size. Interestingly, my epic and legendary rates closely match data collected by a user in June 2016 at   / 4mbpz9   - this suggests drop rates have been mostly unchanged since launch.

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