In this interview, Guermantes Lailari says that the PLA is constantly looking for leverage to force the US to stop the US training of the ROC military and to stop or slow down the weapons shipment to Taiwan worth $19 billion (more than the entire annual budget of Taiwan’s defense). With the U.S. fleet temporarily not close to Taiwan, Vice President Lai visiting Paraguay while transiting in the U.S., and President Biden meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol for a summit at Camp David on Aug. 18, the timing could potentially be advantageous for the PLA to take a small limited action against Taiwan, possibly a small island.

(As of August 14, Lailari would like to note some good news — the Reagan Carrier Strike Group, including the USS Reagan aircraft carrier, is now off the east coast of Taiwan.)

Lailari, known for his research and insights, explores the dynamic landscape of military activities near Taiwan.

00:00 Brief introduction
00:40 What makes you think that China could attempt an attack on Dongsha Island in mid-August?
04:35 What would happen for Taiwan, the US, and neighboring countries should the PLA attack in mid-August?
10:03 Based on your analysis, could the PLA take other islands besides Dongsha Island?
14:51 What would be the implications for the world should an attack on any Taiwanese offshore islands occur?
26:38 If the PLA doesn’t attack in mid-August, when would be another window they could launch attacks?
37:26 “The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history,” said one German philosopher. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what lessons have been learnt by Taiwan and the US?


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