With Stephen Perrenod we discovered the Lindy effect and what it has to do with the Power Law predicting the Price of BTC in USD, but also in Gold!

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Summary

Stephen Perrenod's interest in Bitcoin stems from his background in technology and his personal motivation to secure his children's education. He became a Bitcoin maximalist after studying the white paper and understanding the difficulty of adding blocks to the blockchain. He initially used Bitcoin for international money transfers and later became interested in its store of value properties. Perrenod sees Bitcoin as a specialized AI for money and believes it has the potential to become a global monetary standard. In this part of the conversation, Stephen Perrenod and Robin Seyr discuss the potential future market cap of Bitcoin and its behavior as an exponential or parallel. They analyze the growth rate and volatility of Bitcoin over time, comparing it to gold and the US dollar. They also explore the concept of s-curves and how they can be used to model the future market cap of Bitcoin. The discussion highlights the potential for Bitcoin to surpass gold in market cap within the next decade. Bitcoin is a special purpose AI that is rooted in physics, energy, math, and human networks. It embodies the characteristics of an intelligent adaptive system with decentralized self-governance and extensive networks. Bitcoin functions as a specialized form of AI for money, offering an innovative alternative to traditional financial systems. The power law and emergent behavior are key factors in Bitcoin's growth and adoption. Bitcoin is grounded in reality and has taught us the importance of taking a long-term horizon and thinking in human time scales.

Takeaways

Stephen Perrenod's interest in Bitcoin comes from his background in technology and his personal motivation to secure his children's education.
He became a Bitcoin maximalist after studying the white paper and understanding the difficulty of adding blocks to the blockchain.
Perrenod initially used Bitcoin for international money transfers and later became interested in its store of value properties.
He sees Bitcoin as a specialized AI for money and believes it has the potential to become a global monetary standard. Bitcoin's market cap is expected to continue growing exponentially, with a potential to surpass gold within the next decade.
Bitcoin's growth rate and volatility have decreased over time, indicating a more stable and mature market.
The Weibull cumulative distribution function provides a better fit for modeling Bitcoin's growth than logistic curves.
Bitcoin's behavior is more parallel than exponential, with a power law index of around 6.0.
The future market cap of Bitcoin depends on factors such as the ultimate value it saturates at and the characteristic time scale. Bitcoin is a special purpose AI that combines physics, energy, math, and human networks.
Bitcoin functions as a specialized form of AI for money, offering an alternative to traditional financial systems.
The power law and emergent behavior play a significant role in Bitcoin's growth and adoption.
Bitcoin is grounded in reality and has taught us the importance of taking a long-term horizon and thinking in human time scales.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Recording Setup
00:25 Bitcoin's Importance and Personal Interest
04:37 The Power Law Model and Bitcoin's Intrigue
11:30 Block Time and the Lindy Effect
17:41 Power Laws in Nature and Exponential Growth
19:29 Bitcoin's Potential and the Future of Fiat
29:42 The Lindy Power Law Model and Extrapolations
36:23 Bitcoin's Price Target: Above a Million Dollars in the Next 14 Years
47:27 The Power Law Model: Potential Price Range and Support Line
49:35 Gold vs. Bitcoin: Surpassing Gold's Market Cap in a Decade
01:04:17 The Weibull Function: A Better Fit for Bitcoin's Price Behavior
01:07:31 Bitcoin's Price Behavior: Following an S-Curve
01:08:27 Bitcoin's Growth and the Power Law
01:11:06 Bitcoin as a Planetary Currency
01:15:47 Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Bitcoin
01:34:16 Bitcoin as a Specialized AI for Money