In recent years, numerous analysts have warned of an increasing risk of war in the Taiwan Strait. Others, however, have argued that military conflict remains unlikely, and that the risk of war should not be over-hyped. Drawing from his recent book titled War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait, Professor Scott L. Kastner from University of Maryland, College Park outlined a framework to assess the prospects for military conflict between China and Taiwan. Besides reviewing several causal pathways through which a Taiwan Strait conflict could occur, he also assessed how broad trends in China-Taiwan-US relations affect the likelihood of these different scenarios. He concluded with policy suggestions for how actors in Beijing, Taipei and Washington could mitigate the risks of a war in the Taiwan Strait.

This event was organised by Yale-NUS College, in partnership with the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs, and supported by the Tan Chin Tuan Chinese Culture & Civilisation Programme.