美国前总统特朗普5月30日被裁定他在封口费案件中的三十四项重罪全部成立。特朗普在走出法院时称判决“可耻”，受到操纵，并出言攻击法官腐败。他称自己非常无辜，还指控这是总统拜登对他的打击。

特朗普被控伪造商业记录以掩盖他在2016年总统选举期间，支付十三万美元给一个色情女明星换取对方不公开他们有性关系的事实。支付封口费在美国不算什么罪。问题是特朗普涉嫌伪造记录掩饰自己用政治捐款来支付个人的封口费。他因此成为美国历史上第一位被判有罪的前总统。法官将在7月11日判刑，特朗普可能被判处监禁和巨额罚款。

特朗普会不会成为第一位在狱中当选的总统？他如果当选，又会对美国与美国的外交政策带来什么影响？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和中华战略学会资深研究员张竞详细解析特朗普被定罪会如何影响他二度竞选美国总统之路。

精彩片段
中华战略资深研究员张竞：这只是初步的判决，后面这些缠讼可能要好几年。假如特朗普还是执意继续选下去，而且也正如他所望的当选，很可能在他总统任期结束之前都不会要结束这个诉讼的过程。

主持人韩咏红：特朗普如果当选，他会对台湾，对两岸关系造成什么样的冲击？台湾怎么看？

中华战略资深研究员张竞：......我也必须要讲得比较残酷一点，就是北京跟华盛顿之间的关系，‘Taiwan is still an issue, but not a factor anymore。’

【延伸阅读】
【早知】“封口费”案罪名成立 特朗普还能当总统吗？https://zb.sg/Jf5m
陈留俊：特朗普与“十二怒汉”——美国社会又一窗口 https://zb.sg/4zrR

0:00 开场
02:21 特朗普的牢狱风险
09:20 特朗普若再当选会是什么局面？
14:16 台湾议题仍被摆在台面，但已无法左右大局

Donald Trump became the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime as he makes a bid to return to the White House. A 12-member New York jury found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

The jurors unanimously agreed that Trump falsified documents to conceal a $130,000 hush money payment to former porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign.

Speaking outside the courthouse after the verdict, Trump claimed that the trial was “rigged” against him and he was a “very innocent man”. He called the verdict a “disgrace” and accused President Joe Biden of orchestrating the prosecution.

The conviction does not prevent Trump from running for president. If Trump were to defeat Mr Biden in the November’s election, he would become the first convicted criminal to occupy the White House. How will his guilty verdict sway the U.S. presidential election? If Trump is elected, what are the ramifications for the U.S. and its foreign policy?

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong discusses the impact of Trump’s conviction on his presidential bid with Chang Ching, Non-Resident Research Fellow, Society for Strategic Studies.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

纵观天下，监测中国心跳，由《联合早报》副总编辑韩咏红主持的国际时事播客《东谈西论》，每周探讨国际热点话题，分析国际政治动态。

每逢星期二新加坡时间晚上7时更新。

#zaobaosg #国际 #特朗普 #美国 #美国总统 #总统选举 #DonaldTrump
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